Using the simple averages method to forecast the sales of Diyala Electrical Industries Company After excluding the impact of the season from the series

Abstract

The topic of simple averages in time series is one of the important statistical methods used for forecasting for many economic, administrative, agricultural and commercial fields... etc.

In this study, the focus was on the factors affecting the time series, the most important of which is the seasonal change of the time series, as the focus was to get rid of the effect of the season and then predict the future of the phenomenon. In order to predict the time series and exclude the effect of the season, two methods were used, namely (the simple averages method, which showed  The predictive results are good and efficient, and the study has proven that some of the company's product sales lead to an increase in its profits, which is both because it gave good previous profits to the company and important future predictions for the company's sales and there are some commodities from the company's products that gave fluctuating profits during seasons that are not stable, but change from one season to another. We find some commodities that gave production with fluctuating periods and some commodities have neither production nor predictive values ​​due to the lack of production during the previous period, i.e. it stopped completely, which must be taken care of and prepared for service and knowing the reasons that led to the interruption of production and after excluding seasonal effects from the chain led to predictive results close to Similar and very accurate.